Piketty-reeksen voor Nederland, 1965 (1952) – 2012.

In zijn bekende boek ‘Capital in the twenty-first century‘ (vertaald zou dat ‘Vermogen in de eenentwintigste eeuw’ moeten zijn!) presenteert Thomas Piketty nationale vermogensreeksen voor een aantal landen – maar niet voor Nederland. Uitgaande van beschikbare gegevens (waarbij vooral de aardgasgegevens een probleem waren, uiteindelijk zijn de aardgasopbrengsten gedeeld door de productie) heb ik vergelijkbare reeksen voor Nederland in elkaar geknutseld, die overigens grotendeels gebaseerd zijn op al bestaande reeksen voor ‘fixed assets’ van het CBS die teruggaan tot 1952 en die door het CBS voor het ‘Groningen Growth and Development Centre’ zijn gemaakt (en die op verzoek worden gestuurd, althans dat was in 2008 zo). Een nadere verklaring van de keuzes en methodes zal tot na de vakantie moeten wachten, hier de resultaten, die aangeven dat prijsontwikkelingen een groter deel van de stijging van de waarde van het nationale vermogen hebben bewerkstelligd dan volume-effecten. Wel moet worden genoemd dat het aantal woningen per capita in deze periode nogal fors gestegen is, wat naast de prijsontwikkelingen ook een reden is waarom het in woningen en grond onder woningen gevestigde kapitaal zo gestegen is. Ook de gemiddelde kwaliteit van de woning is in deze periode gestegen, hoewel dat moeilijk is te meten. Voor de definities van ‘kapitaal’ verwijs ik U naar het door Piketty getrouw gevolgde handboek voor de nationale rekeningen, de SNA 2008. Daarnaast mogen we niet ongelukkig zijn met de onderhandelingskwaliteiten die de heer R. Lubbers na de oliecrisis ten opzichte van de oliemaatschappijen etaleerde en die er voor zorgden dat tot 95% van de overwinsten aan de staat toevielen…. In deze berekeningen is de werkwijze van het CBS zo getrouw mogelijk gevolgd, in een publicatie hierover zal ik de waarde van de gasvoorraad ophogen om ook de extra belastinginkomsten (die 5% viel ook nog eens onder de belastingen…) van de staat hierin te disconteren. In eerste instantie is er echter voor gekozen de reeksen zo goed mogelijk bij de bestaande te doen aansluiten (met dank aan collega Frederik voor woningprijzen voor de periode 1965-1975).







10 Responses to “Piketty-reeksen voor Nederland, 1965 (1952) – 2012.”

  1. EmilBakkum zegt:

    Merijn, misschien moet je eerst even uitleggen wat Piketty beweert in zijn boek. Ik vermoed dat bijna niemand het heeft gelezen.

  2. Melbye zegt:

    I’m not sure exactly why but this website is loading very slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a issue on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

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