Grafiek van 20/12/11. Polen als economisch model.
De Baltische staten Estland, Letland en Litouwen zijn troetelkinderen van de neo-liberale economen. Hun antwoord op de crisis van 2007 en later was: interne devaluatie. En ook voor die crisis voerden ze een politiek die geheel volgens de neo-liberale leer was. De crisispolitiek bestond uit (pogingen tot) loonsverlagingen en bezuinigen – en op het rigide vasthouden aan een vaste wisselkoers met de Euro. Op korte termijn zou dit weliswaar tot meer werkloosheid zou leiden maar al heel snel zouden de evenwichtsherstellende tendensen van de markt weer tot werk en werkgelegenheid leiden. De vraag is dan: doen ze het inderdaad goed? Ja, volgens Anders Aslund. Nee, volgens Mark Weisbrot en Rebecca Ray (en ook volgens deze blog). Wat Aslund noch Weisbrot doen is de Baltische staten vergelijken met Polen – een land met een vergelijkbare ligging, een vergelijkbare economische ontwikkeling en geschiedenis en een redelijk vergelijkbare cultuur. Twee belangrijke verschillen zijn echter dat Polen zijn munt (zij het tijdelijk) tijdens de crisis wel gedevalueerd heeft. En dat Polen voorafgaande aan de crisis veel minder dan de Baltische staten een met Zweeds geld gefinancierde zeepbeleconomie had, die ineen plofte toen de banken hun geld terughaalden/niet meer verstrekten. In de grafiek is de industriele productie van deze landen met elkaar vergeleken (volume, indices, twee maands voortschrijdend gemiddelde).
De grafieken spreken duidelijke taal over de ontwikkelingen:
* Al voor de crisis leek Polen het wat beter te doen
* De Poolse val was minder diep
* Het herstel kwam sneller op gang
* En al met al ligt de Poolse productie op een veel hoger niveau dan dat in de Baltische staten
Tegelijkertijd lijkt het herstel in de Baltische staten duidelijk aan vaart te minderen. Nu is productie natuurlijk niet zaligmakend – maar hoge werkloosheid en krimp nog veel minder. Samenvattend heeft Polen dus zowel een stabielere als een gunstiger ontwikkeling. Waarbij juist deze ontwikkeling, doordat de groei investeringen en scholing aantrekkelijker maakt, het land een voorsprong op de buren kan geven…
Het geheel overziend wordt ik overigens negatiever en negatiever over ongebreidelde kapitaalstromen van rijke landen met een hoog prijsniveau naar landen met een veel lager prijsniveau.
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